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Univariate Time Series Model for Electric Power Consumption: A Case of Gezira State, Sudan (1985-2010)

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dc.contributor.author Ahmed, Entesar Salah Eldeen Ali
dc.date.accessioned 2018-12-12T11:35:20Z
dc.date.available 2018-12-12T11:35:20Z
dc.date.issued 2013-01-26
dc.identifier.uri http://repo.uofg.edu.sd/handle/123456789/3214
dc.description A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Statistics, Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematical and Computer Sciences University of Gezira, January 2013 en_US
dc.description.abstract Analysis of time series forecasting is a major tool in various fields. The analysis of time series is important statistical methods used to predict the values of random phenomena in the future .The aims of this study was to apply the random models to describe the data of electricity consumption of Gezira state and predict the consumption of electricity in the future. This study depend secondary data collected from the national Electricity for the period between (1985-2010) and based on the Box-Jenkins methodology, The study found that the most appropriate model fitted the data is ARIMA (1.1.1) (1.1.1) , also the study compared the predicted values with the real values for the same period. The study concluded that the production of electricity is not the procession of the increasing demand for electricity the study recommended of dams and establishing of thermal power stations to meet the increasing demand for electric power . en_US
dc.description.sponsorship Adel Ali Ahmed (Main Supervisor ) Mahjoub Ismail Mahjoub (Co.Supervisor) en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher University of Gezira en_US
dc.subject Applied Statistics en_US
dc.title Univariate Time Series Model for Electric Power Consumption: A Case of Gezira State, Sudan (1985-2010) en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US

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